Ignite Creation Date:
2025-12-24 @ 3:15 PM
Ignite Modification Date:
2025-12-24 @ 3:15 PM
Study NCT ID:
NCT04410692
Status:
COMPLETED
Last Update Posted:
2020-06-02
First Post:
2020-05-27
Is Possible Gene Therapy:
False
Has Adverse Events:
False
Brief Title:
Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?
Sponsor:
Organization:
Raw JSON
{'hasResults': False, 'derivedSection': {'miscInfoModule': {'versionHolder': '2025-12-24'}, 'conditionBrowseModule': {'meshes': [{'id': 'D001519', 'term': 'Behavior'}]}}, 'protocolSection': {'designModule': {'phases': ['NA'], 'studyType': 'INTERVENTIONAL', 'designInfo': {'allocation': 'RANDOMIZED', 'maskingInfo': {'masking': 'NONE'}, 'primaryPurpose': 'OTHER', 'interventionModel': 'PARALLEL'}, 'enrollmentInfo': {'type': 'ACTUAL', 'count': 560}}, 'statusModule': {'overallStatus': 'COMPLETED', 'startDateStruct': {'date': '2020-05-15', 'type': 'ACTUAL'}, 'expandedAccessInfo': {'hasExpandedAccess': False}, 'statusVerifiedDate': '2020-05', 'completionDateStruct': {'date': '2020-05-17', 'type': 'ACTUAL'}, 'lastUpdateSubmitDate': '2020-05-30', 'studyFirstSubmitDate': '2020-05-27', 'studyFirstSubmitQcDate': '2020-05-29', 'lastUpdatePostDateStruct': {'date': '2020-06-02', 'type': 'ACTUAL'}, 'studyFirstPostDateStruct': {'date': '2020-06-01', 'type': 'ACTUAL'}, 'primaryCompletionDateStruct': {'date': '2020-05-16', 'type': 'ACTUAL'}}, 'outcomesModule': {'primaryOutcomes': [{'measure': 'Predictions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths', 'timeFrame': '24 hours', 'description': 'Participants are asked 16 questions of the following format:\n\n"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"\n\nEach question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of possible outcomes. The primary outcome measure is participants\' perceived likelihood of each answer option.\n\nThe 16 questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).'}], 'secondaryOutcomes': [{'measure': 'Fear', 'timeFrame': '24 hours (participants are required to submit post-experiment survey within 24 hours of completion of the main experiment)', 'description': "Fear is measured by participants' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey. The questions are on a 5-point Likert scale."}]}, 'oversightModule': {'isFdaRegulatedDrug': False, 'isFdaRegulatedDevice': False}, 'conditionsModule': {'conditions': ['Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice']}, 'referencesModule': {'references': [{'pmid': '31346273', 'type': 'BACKGROUND', 'citation': 'Camerer CF, Dreber A, Holzmeister F, Ho TH, Huber J, Johannesson M, Kirchler M, Nave G, Nosek BA, Pfeiffer T, Altmejd A, Buttrick N, Chan T, Chen Y, Forsell E, Gampa A, Heikensten E, Hummer L, Imai T, Isaksson S, Manfredi D, Rose J, Wagenmakers EJ, Wu H. Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015. Nat Hum Behav. 2018 Sep;2(9):637-644. doi: 10.1038/s41562-018-0399-z. Epub 2018 Aug 27.'}]}, 'descriptionModule': {'briefSummary': "The goal of this study is to better understand how people predict the future risks of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19).\n\nSpecifically, the investigators will ask the following research questions:\n\n* How well do participants predict the future risks of COVID-19?\n* Can the predictions be improved by using a prediction market mechanism?\n* Does the prediction market reduce people's fear of COVID-19?", 'detailedDescription': 'The proposed study is an online experiment. Students enrolled at National University of Singapore are recruited to participate in the study.\n\nParticipants will first complete a pre-experiment survey, which contains basic demographic questions. Then, participants will be randomly assigned to one of two conditions: "Survey" and "Prediction Market".\n\n"SURVEY" CONDITION:\n\nParticipants in the "Survey" condition are asked 16 prediction questions in a survey format. The questions are of the following format:\n\n"What do you think will be the total cumulative number of cases in Singapore on 8th of June, at 12pm?"\n\nEach question has 5 answer options. Each answer option is a range of outcomes, e.g. "\\< 28,900", "between 28,900 and 33,899", "between 33,900 and 38,899", "between 38,900 and 43,899", and "\\> 43,899". Participants are required to enter their perceived likelihood of each answer option in %.\n\nThe 16 prediction questions come from the following variations: 4 countries (Mexico, Singapore, Turkey, USA) x 2 outcome measures (cases, deaths) x 2 time periods (8th of June, 6th of July).\n\nParticipants have 24 hours to submit their predictions.\n\nAfter the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.\n\n"PREDICTION MARKET" CONDITION:\n\nFor participants in the "Prediction Market" condition, the same 16 prediction questions are presented in the form of prediction markets. The prediction market is a well-established method of eliciting people\'s predictions. The method is briefly described below.\n\nThere are 16 prediction markets, one for each question. Participants are given 100 tokens per market, which can be used to buy "stocks" on possible outcomes. There are 5 possible outcomes per market (identical to the 5 answer options per question in the "Survey" condition).\n\nEach stock (i.e., possible outcome) will have a price that is dynamically determined by the central marketplace, which is a function of real-time demand and supply of the option. If the option is popular, its price will become higher, and vice versa.\n\nParticipants can trade at any time, and as many times as they want, during a 24-hour period. Upon closure of the prediction market, participants will be rewarded proportional to the number of shares that they hold on options that later turn out to be true.\n\nThe final prices of stocks correspond to the group\'s predictions of COVID-19.\n\nAfter the 24-hour period, participants are requested to fill out a post-experiment survey, which includes questions about their subjective attitudes and fears towards COVID-19.\n\n=====\n\nHYPOTHESES\n\nThe prediction market leads to better predictions about COVID-19. The investigators will compare the survey predictions and the prediction-market predictions with the actual realized outcome. The investigators hypothesize that the prediction-market predictions are more accurate than the survey predictions through information aggregation.\n\nThe prediction market reduces fear. Fear is measured by participants\' responses to subjective attitude questions in the post-experiment survey.'}, 'eligibilityModule': {'sex': 'ALL', 'stdAges': ['ADULT', 'OLDER_ADULT'], 'minimumAge': '18 Years', 'healthyVolunteers': True, 'eligibilityCriteria': 'Inclusion Criteria:\n\n* National University of Singapore students\n\nExclusion Criteria:\n\n* N/A'}, 'identificationModule': {'nctId': 'NCT04410692', 'briefTitle': 'Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?', 'organization': {'class': 'OTHER', 'fullName': 'National University of Singapore'}, 'officialTitle': 'Can the Prediction Market Improve Predictions of COVID-19?', 'orgStudyIdInfo': {'id': 'SG-COVID'}}, 'armsInterventionsModule': {'armGroups': [{'type': 'NO_INTERVENTION', 'label': 'Control', 'description': "Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a survey"}, {'type': 'EXPERIMENTAL', 'label': 'Treatment', 'description': "Participants' COVID-19 predictions are elicited via a prediction market", 'interventionNames': ['Other: Prediction Market']}], 'interventions': [{'name': 'Prediction Market', 'type': 'OTHER', 'description': 'Participants "bet" on likely future outcomes using a prediction market', 'armGroupLabels': ['Treatment']}]}, 'contactsLocationsModule': {'locations': [{'city': 'Singapore', 'country': 'Singapore', 'facility': 'National University of Singapore', 'geoPoint': {'lat': 1.28967, 'lon': 103.85007}}], 'overallOfficials': [{'name': 'Teck Ho, PhD', 'role': 'PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR', 'affiliation': 'National University of Singapore'}]}, 'ipdSharingStatementModule': {'infoTypes': ['STUDY_PROTOCOL', 'ICF', 'ANALYTIC_CODE'], 'timeFrame': 'After completion of all analysis. It will be made available in the supporting documentation.', 'ipdSharing': 'YES', 'description': 'Investigators will not be storing or sharing any personal identifiers. All individual level data will be anonymized, and only anonymized data will be shared with other researchers, upon request.', 'accessCriteria': 'It will be made available in the supporting documentation.'}, 'sponsorCollaboratorsModule': {'leadSponsor': {'name': 'National University of Singapore', 'class': 'OTHER'}, 'responsibleParty': {'type': 'PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR', 'investigatorTitle': 'Senior Deputy President & Provost', 'investigatorFullName': 'Ho Teck Hua', 'investigatorAffiliation': 'National University of Singapore'}}}}